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Dollar Surges Vs Yen on Security Alert


Fri February 20, 2004 12:13 PM ET

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar surged swiftly above 109 yen on Friday, gaining 1.85 percent against the Japanese currency, with some traders citing reports of a terror alert in Japan as a reason for the yen's losses.

Japan tightened security on Friday at 650 key facilities around the country, including nuclear power plants and government offices, to guard against a possible terrorist attack, a National Police Agency official said.

The official said the heightened security was due to factors such as Japan's recent dispatch of ground forces to help rebuild Iraq. But he declined to say whether there had been any fresh information concerning a possible attack.

Earlier, a report by the Associated Press news wire quoted an official in Tokyo as saying Japan had raised its terror alert to its highest level, which was one of the triggers for the dollar's initial surge against the yen, traders said.

"There was some discussion of a raid or a terror alert in Japan. This caused a spike in dollar/yen," said a Chicago-based trader.

Traders also cited stop-loss orders being triggered around 108 yen as a catalyst contributing to the dollar's rise, with buy orders for the dollar helping it steepen its climb.

The initial report on Japan's heightened alert "helped trigger stop loss orders," said Patrick Brodie, chief dealer at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking in New York.

"The rise on the dollar/yen was a catalyst that triggered some stop-loss buying above 108. Those orders were already placed in the market to buy above 108. We have seen a continuation of unwinding of long-yen positions on short-dollar positions."

The dollar pushed up to session highs against the yen above 109.0 yen, according to Reuters data, before paring a little of its gains to around 108.84 yen in late morning New York trade.

"People are covering short dollar positions and stops were hit," said Paul Chertkow, head of global currency research at Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi in London. "Fear of intervention by the BoJ is shifting the risk/reward calculation of speculative funds in dollar/yen from the downside to the upside."

Some analysts had doubted whether the initial reports about Japan's heightened security alert were a strong fundamental reason for the dollar's surge against the yen.

"This is seen as an excuse to take the dollar/yen to the 108 level" and above, said Marc Chandler, chief currency strategist with HSBC in New York.

"I'm not sure that (the Japan alert) is enough to justify a move of this magnitude. It's more the case that once dollar/yen started moving two days ago there were a lot of people who had been short dollar/yen who were being stopped out on the way up," said Adam Cole, senior currency strategist at Credit Agricole Indosuez, London. "It's self-feeding," he said.

The dollar has rebounded steeply against the yen over the past two sessions amid a clear-out of long yen positions. Long positions are effectively bets that a currency will appreciate. Short positions are bets that a currency will decline. (Additional reporting by Gertrude Chavez and Manuela Badawy in New York and Charlotte Cooper and Christina Fincher in London)

 

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