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World economic climate best since '00-Ifo/ICC poll

Wed February 18, 2004 11:22 AM ET

LONDON, Feb 18 (Reuters) - The global economic climate is at its best since the boom year of 2000 and the good news this time around is that growth should be sustained everywhere, a survey of more than 1,000 business economists showed on Wednesday.

The latest jump in economic sentiment was driven mostly by positive assessments of the current situation, according to the quarterly poll of economists from transnational companies, academic circles and chambers of commerce in 92 countries.

But expectations for the next six months also pushed even higher, it said.

The survey's economic climate indicator, compiled by Germany's Ifo research institute and the Paris-based International Chamber of Commerce, jumped to 111.0 in January from 100.2 in October.

While the expectations indicator climbed to 128.1 from 122.8, the current conditions component jumped almost 20 points to 93.2 from 76.7.

"The latest survey results are a further indication that the upswing in economic activity worldwide is solidifying and will gain strength in the coming months," Hans-Werner Sinn, President of Germany's Ifo Institute for Economic Research, said in a statment.

"In all areas of the world, the recovery is seen by the experts as robust and a continuation of the upturn is expected to last for the next one to two years."

The breakdown shows the economic climate indicator rising most strongly in North America and Asia, where India continues to be seen as the "shining star" economically. But the indicators are also clearly upward in western Europe and the rest of the world.

Inflation rates were expected to remain subdued this year, with an average forecast for world consumer price increases at just 2.7 percent -- well below expectations for a rate of 3.2 percent in the same survey a year ago.

On the financial climate, the survey showed an increasing majority of economists felt the euro and British pound were overvalued, while the U.S. dollar was seen as undervalued by more respondents than in the last two polls.

The survey said the value of the Japanese yen was seen as nearly appropriate.

In response to a new question on the likely effect on economic activity from fears of terror attacks, experts said the overall impact should be minimal. Regionally, the concerns were higher in the United States and Russia.

 

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