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		Home Page Mortgage News You Can Use Analysts look for strong 2004 U.S. economic growth Tue February 10, 2004 10:36 AM ET WASHINGTON, Feb 10 (Reuters) - The U.S. economy is likely to grow a robust 4.6 percent this year, with inflation remaining contained but unemployment little changed, according to the latest consensus from a panel of top forecasters. The closely watched Blue Chip Economic Indicators newsletter said its latest poll of over 50 professional forecasters found expectations for growth unchanged from a month ago -- a break from recent months in which projections were regularly bumped higher. The consensus forecast for an average unemployment rate of 5.7 percent this year was also unchanged. On Friday, the Labor Department said the jobless rate fell to 5.6 percent in January, the lowest level in two years. The survey found panelists expected, on average, 166,000 new jobs to be created each month this year. The forecasts were submitted before Friday's employment report, which showed non-farm payrolls rose by 112,000 last month. On Monday, the Bush administration released a report that implied much stronger jobs growth this year. In all, the White House said it expected the level of employment this year to average about 2.6 million jobs above last year's level. The newsletter said its panel expected inflation as measured by the consumer price index to advance just 2 percent this year, just below the 2.1 percent rise expected a month ago and an increase faster than last year, when the CPI rose 1.9 percent. The so-called core CPI, which strips out sometimes volatile food and energy prices, was seen rising 1.5 percent. That would mark an acceleration from last year's 1.1 percent advance, which was the smallest annual increase since 1960. With little progress expected in reducing unemployment and expectations for continued low inflation, panelists appeared to be banking on further strong advances in business productivity, the newsletter said. The recent strength in productivity combined with the pace of labor force growth of recent years "suggests a potential growth rate of 4.6 percent or right in line with current consensus expectations of real GDP growth in 2004," it said. "This underlies the consensus expectation that inflation this year is likely to remain tame. Indeed, suggests the possibility that it could fall beneath current forecasts," the newsletter said.   Back to Original Article: Mortgage News You Can Use   Continue with: OPEC Springs Surprise Oil Output Cut SEC calls for fraud investigation Housing Affordability Improves In Fourth Quarter The Mortgage Market This Week Mortgage Application Volume Holds Steady Tax Advocates Pressure House Declaration Fails To Give Dollar a Boost Inventories, Sales Rose in Dec. Bush hits road, touting economy Euro Falls as EU Wants Weaker Currency Treasuries Higher on Hopes of Demand
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