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Hot stocks ignite consumer confidence

By Barbara Hagenbaugh, USA TODAY WASHINGTON — U.S. consumer confidence rose to its highest level in 1½ years in January despite only slow improvement in the job market, a private research group said Tuesday.

The Conference Board said its index of consumer confidence rose nearly 6% to 96.8, the highest level since July 2002.

The gain was partly attributed to increased stock prices, which are believed to affect consumer spending after a time lag. More than 47% of the consumers surveyed in January said they expected stock prices to increase in the next 12 months, the highest level in four years.

But consumers' assessments of the jobs picture were more mixed. The percentage of consumers surveyed who said jobs were "hard to get" fell 1 percentage point to 31.4%, but those saying jobs were "plentiful" slipped slightly to only 12.4% this month. The majority said jobs were "not so plentiful."

Reflecting that uncertainty, nearly three-quarters of the consumers in the survey said they expected their incomes — considered the biggest factor in consumer spending — would be unchanged six months from now.

National City chief economist Richard DeKaser says the numbers accurately reflect the state of the economy: "Things are clearly improving, but the improvements seem to be affecting abstract developments like business conditions and stock prices rather than striking very close to home."

In fact, despite the increase in confidence, consumers scaled back their expectations for purchases on everything from cars to TVs to carpeting.

The consumer confidence data came as Federal Reserve officials began a two-day meeting in Washington. Policymakers are expected to leave their target for short-term interest rates at 1%, a 45-year low, at the conclusion of the meeting Wednesday.

 

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