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		Home Page We're about Mortgage News You Can Use     Consumer Confidence Rose in January Despite Job Concerns Tuesday January 27, 10:51 am ET By Michael S. Derby NEW YORK -- U.S. consumer-confidence levels jumped in January to their best level since the summer of 2002, although concerns about the job market continue to linger, a private research group said Tuesday. The Conference Board reported that its consumer confidence index for January rose to 96.8 from a revised 91.7 in December. But the gain failed to match economists' expectations of a reading of 98, found in a survey conducted by Dow Jones Newswires. The index was equal to 100 in 1985. "Consumer confidence is now at its highest level since July 2002," Conference Board economist Lynn Franco said in a press release. "Growing optimism about the overall health of the economy continues to bolster consumers' short-term outlook," she said. The present situation index, a gauge of consumers' assessment of current economic conditions, increased to 80 this month from a revised 74.3 in December. Meanwhile, the consumer expectations index for the state of economic activity over the next six months rose to 108.1 from a revised 103.3. The Conference Board said that assessments of the labor market showed a small improvement in January. Those expecting jobs to get more plentiful rose to 22.2% from 21.6% in the last survey, while those expecting fewer jobs to become available fell to 14.9% from 16.9%. Still, Ms. Franco said that "consumers' assessment of current conditions, which strongly hinges on improvement in the labor market, remains both weak and volatile." The Conference Board's report comes on the same day that the Federal Reserve has begun meeting to deliberate on monetary policy. There's no expectation among economists or markets that interest rates will be adjusted when policy makers conclude the two-day meeting on Wednesday. What will be more important is what the Fed says about the economy. Most expect the central bank to keep its tentatively upbeat assessment, even as policy makers continue to warn of an ongoing threat that already low inflation rates might fall even further. The strength of the January confidence data won't likely play much part in the Fed's decision-making process. While closely watched by financial markets, consumer confidence measures don't merit much attention from policy makers, who have said they prefer to see what consumers actually do with their money, as opposed to what they say they will do. Deutsche Bank economists said in recent research note that it's also quite difficult to correlate changes in confidence levels with changes in employment. Moreover, consumer confidence measures, particularly in the twice-monthly release from the University of Michigan, have shown considerable volatility of late, even as that particular survey hit its highest level since late 2000 as of the middle of January. The choppy waters have come as the economy turned in a blistering performance during the second half of 2003, with growth likely having averaged around 6% on an annualized basis. The Conference Board report is based on a survey of 5,000 households, conducted by mail-in survey.   Back to Original Article: Mortgage News You Can Use   Continue with: Consumers Upbeat in Jan. But Jobs Scant Can Consumer Spend If Rates Start Rising? What It'll Take to Move the Fed U.S. made clear it has strong dollar policy-Aldonas Greenspan: Trade Protectionism May Hurt Intl Prosperity Fed expected to keep promising `considerable period' of low interest rates Consumer Confidence Index in U.S. Jumps to 96.8, Highest Since July 2002 Gold Coins MBA Releases Long-Term Forecast for U.S. Economy and Housing Finance Market CBO Says '04 Deficit Will Rise to $477 Billion The Jobless Recovery A Cheap Dollar Boom Consumer Confidence Rises in January
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