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U.S. Budget Office Deepens Fiscal Gloom for Bush Part Two

Just as the White House prepares to roll out its 2005 budget on Feb. 2, Bush has also begun taking fire from conservatives within his own party for not laying out concrete plans to cut government spending and reduce the deficit.

That has led administration officials to promise an effective freeze on federal discretionary spending not connected to defense or homeland security, calling that the foundation of a push to halve the deficit over five years.

Congressional and private-sector budget analysts, however, note the move would save the government only around $8 billion dollars out of a $2 trillion-plus federal budget -- even if Congress can be made to swallow the cuts it would require.

"It's more like an effort to get through the next 10 days," said Stan Collender, a veteran budget watcher at public relations firm Fleishman-Hillard. "It isn't going to happen."

Both Democratic and Republican analysts also note the CBO's forecasts may actually understate the scale of the government's fiscal problems, because of the way they are drawn up.

"It's going to be a challenge to cut the deficit in half by 2009," said Bill Hoagland, senior budget adviser to Senate Republican leader Bill Frist of Tennessee. The CBO currently forecasts a deficit of $268 billion in that fiscal year.

The agency's long-term forecast assumes, for example, that Bush's tax cuts will be allowed to expire as scheduled toward the end of the decade, something the White House and congressional Republicans have vowed to prevent.

It also does not factor in even a modest reform of the ever-expanding reach of the Alternative Minimum Tax, which both parties concede will become politically imperative and which is expected to cost a minimum of $400 billion.

 

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